Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 19

Eibar–Valladolid

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 19 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'EibarAnder Madariaga (assist: Jon Guruzeta)
48'EibarJon Bautista
70'EibarJosé Corpas (assist: Jon Magunazelaia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Valladolid
9	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
340	Passes	628
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.09 · Valladolid 1.18. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Eibar 9 · Valladolid 6; on target 4 and 2.
Valladolid kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain→

3.57

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Eibar, 0.96 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (1X — Eibar win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,584 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win40.4%

Draw31.3%

Valladolid to win28.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Eibar lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time49.6%

Valladolid lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time50.4%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1584 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 13Actual: 18
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Eibar: at least 4Actual: 3
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.09

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.18

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.2%0–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.