Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Castellón–Mirandes

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 15 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'CastellónM. Doué (assist: A. Mabil)
41'MirandesC. Fernandez (penalty)
65'CastellónOusmane Camara (assist: Barri)
90'CastellónOusmane Camara (assist: Israel Suero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Mirandes
17	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
467	Passes	292
379	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.80 · Mirandes 0.96. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Castellón 17 · Mirandes 10; on target 6 and 2.
Castellón kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

7.17

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.3%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.17 for Castellón, 0.76 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 89.7% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,583 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win70.3%

Draw19.3%

Mirandes to win10.3%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Castellón lead at half-time45.7%

Level at half-time41.7%

Mirandes lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead54.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1583 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 13Actual: 16
Mirandes: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Castellón: at least 5Actual: 5
Mirandes: at least 2Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.80

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.80 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score0.96

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–010.9%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.