Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Albacete–Malaga

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'AlbaceteEinar Galilea (own goal)
52'MalagaDavid Larrubia
59'MalagaDani Lorenzo (assist: Izan Merino)
90'MalagaChupe (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Albacete		Malaga
11	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
356	Passes	484
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Albacete 1.56 · Malaga 1.14. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Albacete 11 · Malaga 12; on target 5 and 5.
Malaga kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Alejandro Ojaos Valera, Spain→

5.33

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Albacete, 1.01 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Albacete win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,580 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Albacete to win50.0%

Draw27.1%

Malaga to win22.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	4

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Albacete lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time48.5%

Malaga lead at half-time29.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Albacete ahead or level70.7%

12 — not level at half-time51.5%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1580 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Albacete: at least 11Actual: 9
Malaga: at least 11Actual: 4

Corners

Albacete: at least 5Actual: 6
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Albacete score1.56

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score1.14

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–011.2%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.