Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Sporting Gijon–Granada CF

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

89'Sporting GijonCésar Gelabert (assist: J. Otero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Granada CF
15	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
2	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
388	Passes	344
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.38 · Granada CF 1.25. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sporting Gijon 15 · Granada CF 7; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

Salvador Lax Franco, Spain→

4.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Sporting Gijon, 1.01 for Granada CF.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,575 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win43.0%

Draw29.8%

Granada CF to win27.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time45.0%

Granada CF lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Granada CF ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1575 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 13Actual: 14
Granada CF: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 6
Granada CF: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.38

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Granada CF score1.25

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.1%0–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.