Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 18

Cultural Leonesa–Huesca

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'HuescaAngel Pérez (assist: Francisco Portillo)
82'HuescaEnol Rodríguez (assist: Iñigo Piña)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Huesca
17	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
528	Passes	332
464	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 1.29 · Huesca 0.94. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 17 · Huesca 8; on target 7 and 4.
Cultural Leonesa kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain→

5.57

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Cultural Leonesa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Cultural Leonesa, 0.91 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (1X — Cultural Leonesa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,573 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win42.7%

Draw31.1%

Huesca to win26.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time41.6%

Huesca lead at half-time14.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level85.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1573 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 12Actual: 7
Huesca: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 4Actual: 5
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.29

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.94

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–013.9%0–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.