Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 17

Malaga–Zaragoza

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 8 December 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'ZaragozaS. Bakis · red card
17'MalagaEinar Galilea
90'ZaragozaD. Gomez (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malaga		Zaragoza
19	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
8	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
320	Passes	549
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malaga 1.41 · Zaragoza 1.06. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Malaga 19 · Zaragoza 15; on target 7 and 5.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

6.17

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Malaga, 1.01 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (1X — Malaga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,572 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malaga to win43.0%

Draw29.7%

Zaragoza to win27.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Malaga lead at half-time39.9%

Level at half-time46.7%

Zaragoza lead at half-time13.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Malaga ahead or level86.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead60.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1572 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Malaga: at least 13Actual: 11
Zaragoza: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

Malaga: at least 4Actual: 8
Zaragoza: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malaga score1.41

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score1.06

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–012.0%0–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.