Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 17

Granada CF–AD Ceuta FC

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Granada CFPedro Alemañ (assist: S. Faye)
40'AD Ceuta FCC. Rodriguez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		AD Ceuta FC
15	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
6	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
428	Passes	323
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.46 · AD Ceuta FC 1.01. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Granada CF 15 · AD Ceuta FC 9; on target 3 and 3.
Granada CF kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain→

3.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Granada CF, 0.97 for AD Ceuta FC.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,569 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win46.9%

Draw28.7%

AD Ceuta FC to win24.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Granada CF lead at half-time46.3%

Level at half-time40.8%

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or AD Ceuta FC ahead53.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1569 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 10
AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 5
AD Ceuta FC: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.46

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.01

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–012.3%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.