Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 17

Deportivo La Coruna–Castellón

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

32'Deportivo La CorunaY. Hernandez (assist: Stoichkov)
64'CastellónM. Doué (assist: Barri)
79'CastellónF. Brignani (assist: B. Cipenga)
84'CastellónB. Cipenga (assist: Israel Suero)
90+5'Deportivo La CorunaL. Noubi · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Castellón
6	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	9
6	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
335	Passes	419
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.62 · Castellón 1.19. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 6 · Castellón 17; on target 3 and 5.
Castellón kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain→

5.29

yellows per match

0.71

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “Castellón to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.24 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,567 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win40.4%

Draw28.0%

Castellón to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	6

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time33.8%

Level at half-time43.1%

Castellón lead at half-time23.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level76.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead66.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1567 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 13
Castellón: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 3
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.62

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.19

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.6%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.