Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 17

Real Sociedad II–Sporting Gijon

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'Sporting GijonCésar Gelabert (assist: Diego Sánchez)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Sporting Gijon
8	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	6
5	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
451	Passes	324
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.68 · Sporting Gijon 1.14. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Real Sociedad II 8 · Sporting Gijon 9; on target 1 and 2.
Real Sociedad II kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Eder Mallo Fernandez, Spain→

5.17

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.06 for Real Sociedad II, 1.35 for Sporting Gijon.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (X2 — draw or Sporting Gijon win).
These values were computed from 1,564 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win28.1%

Draw29.2%

Sporting Gijon to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time33.1%

Level at half-time43.5%

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Sporting Gijon ahead66.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1564 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 12Actual: 11
Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 4
Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.68

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.14

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%0–111.2%1–29.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.