Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 17

Huesca–Valladolid

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'ValladolidChuky San José (assist: Juanmi Latasa)
36'ValladolidPeter Federico (assist: Chuky San José)
56'ValladolidPeter Federico (assist: S. Biuk)
74'HuescaS. Ntamack (assist: Jorge Pulido)
76'ValladolidA. Ndiaye (assist: G. Bueno)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Valladolid
12	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
392	Passes	394
294	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 0.92 · Valladolid 1.22. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Huesca 12 · Valladolid 12; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

Andres Fuentes Molina, Spain→

5.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Huesca, 1.16 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 69.4% (X2 — draw or Valladolid win).
These values were computed from 1,563 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win30.6%

Draw31.3%

Valladolid to win38.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Huesca lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time49.2%

Valladolid lead at half-time25.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level74.4%

12 — not level at half-time50.8%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1563 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 12Actual: 10
Valladolid: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Huesca: at least 3Actual: 6
Valladolid: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score0.92

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.22

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.5%0–011.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.