Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 17

FC Andorra–Almeria

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

69'AlmeriaSergio Arribas (assist: S. Džodić)
77'AlmeriaSergio Arribas
90'FC AndorraManu Nieto (assist: E. Akman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Almeria
19	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	8
13	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
390	Passes	261
324	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.18 · Almeria 1.68. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Andorra 19 · Almeria 17; on target 6 and 8.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Rafael Sanchez Lopez, Spain→

4.86

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “FC Andorra to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for FC Andorra, 1.47 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,562 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win30.3%

Draw27.6%

Almeria to win42.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Andorra lead at half-time24.6%

Level at half-time48.6%

Almeria lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time51.4%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead75.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1562 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 12Actual: 14
Almeria: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 10
Almeria: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.18

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.68

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.68 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.8%0–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.