Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 16

Castellón–Las Palmas

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

76'CastellónIsrael Suero (assist: B. Cipenga)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Castellón		Las Palmas
18	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
395	Passes	485
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Castellón 1.06 · Las Palmas 1.07. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Castellón 18 · Las Palmas 10; on target 5 and 1.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban, Spain→

4.00

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Castellón, 0.97 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Castellón win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,561 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Castellón to win49.7%

Draw27.6%

Las Palmas to win22.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Castellón lead at half-time21.4%

Level at half-time45.0%

Las Palmas lead at half-time33.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Castellón ahead or level66.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead78.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1561 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Castellón: at least 15Actual: 14
Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Castellón: at least 5Actual: 3
Las Palmas: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Castellón score1.06

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 49% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.07

Attack: Las Palmas score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.8%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.