Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 16

Zaragoza–Leganes

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'LeganesDuk (assist: G. Melero)
28'LeganesMarvel · red card
35'ZaragozaK. Kodro (assist: Francho Serrano)
66'ZaragozaT. Moya
76'ZaragozaFrancho Serrano (assist: M. Aguirregabiria)
90'LeganesDiego García (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zaragoza		Leganes
20	Shots	4
11	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	8
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
63%	Possession	37%
514	Passes	302
462	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zaragoza 0.94 · Leganes 1.18. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Zaragoza 20 · Leganes 4; on target 11 and 2.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

7.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.1%: “Zaragoza to win”. Second comes “Leganes to win” at 33.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Zaragoza, 1.08 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,557 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zaragoza to win35.1%

Draw31.3%

Leganes to win33.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	2

First half

Actual: 1–1

Zaragoza lead at half-time18.9%

Level at half-time48.6%

Leganes lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Zaragoza ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time51.4%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead81.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1557 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zaragoza: at least 14Actual: 15
Leganes: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Zaragoza: at least 5Actual: 5
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zaragoza score0.94

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score1.18

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–011.6%0–111.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.