Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 16

AD Ceuta FC–Burgos

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

20'AD Ceuta FCJosé Matos (assist: K. Kone)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Burgos
14	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
10	Corners	7
1	Offsides	5
53%	Possession	47%
374	Passes	327
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.25 · Burgos 0.93. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 14 · Burgos 9; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

Salvador Lax Franco, Spain→

3.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.1%: “AD Ceuta FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for AD Ceuta FC, 0.92 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (1X — AD Ceuta FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,552 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win41.1%

Draw31.5%

Burgos to win27.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time45.8%

Burgos lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1552 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 21
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 10
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.25

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.93

Attack: Burgos score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.7%0–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.