Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 13

AD Ceuta FC–Almeria

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 26 November 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'AD Ceuta FCKuki (assist: José Matos)
37'AlmeriaAdri Embarba
54'AD Ceuta FCMarcos Fernández (assist: K. de La Fuente)
61'AlmeriaSergio Arribas (assist: Adri Embarba)
83'AD Ceuta FCJamelli (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Almeria
10	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
344	Passes	443
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.25 · Almeria 1.37. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 10 · Almeria 15; on target 7 and 6.
Almeria kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain→

5.20

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “AD Ceuta FC to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.43 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,550 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win29.9%

Draw28.1%

Almeria to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time19.4%

Level at half-time43.4%

Almeria lead at half-time37.2%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level62.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.6%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead80.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1550 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 12Actual: 12
Almeria: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 2
Almeria: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.25

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.37

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.7%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.