Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 15

Real Sociedad II–Valladolid

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 24 November 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Real Sociedad IIJ. Balda

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Valladolid
13	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	16
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	9
0	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
362	Passes	471
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.18 · Valladolid 1.32. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Real Sociedad II 13 · Valladolid 20; on target 4 and 3.
Valladolid kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Rafael Sanchez Lopez, Spain→

4.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Valladolid to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Real Sociedad II, 1.43 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (X2 — draw or Valladolid win).
These values were computed from 1,549 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win25.9%

Draw28.6%

Valladolid to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time46.5%

Valladolid lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1549 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 14Actual: 13
Valladolid: at least 14Actual: 11

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 3Actual: 4
Valladolid: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.18

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.32

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–111.4%1–29.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.