Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 15

Malaga–Mirandes

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

-5'MirandesJuanpa · red card
31'MalagaA. Nino (assist: C. Dotor)
33'MalagaA. Nino
59'MirandesA. Mari (assist: P. Perez)
79'MirandesG. Petit (assist: Salim El Jebari)
90'MalagaEinar Galilea

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malaga		Mirandes
18	Shots	14
11	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	8
2	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
503	Passes	313
433	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malaga 1.31 · Mirandes 1.08. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Malaga 18 · Mirandes 14; on target 11 and 6.
Malaga kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain→

6.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Malaga to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Malaga, 0.90 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 78.7% (1X — Malaga win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,548 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malaga to win50.7%

Draw28.0%

Mirandes to win21.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Malaga lead at half-time36.2%

Level at half-time47.8%

Mirandes lead at half-time15.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Malaga ahead or level84.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.2%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead63.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1548 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Malaga: at least 12Actual: 19
Mirandes: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Malaga: at least 4Actual: 2
Mirandes: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malaga score1.31

Attack: Malaga score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score1.08

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–013.0%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.