Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 15

Deportivo La Coruna–AD Ceuta FC

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'Deportivo La CorunaY. Hernandez (assist: Luismi Cruz)
63'Deportivo La CorunaStoichkov (assist: Dani Barcia)
77'AD Ceuta FCMarcos Fernández (assist: Anuar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		AD Ceuta FC
16	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
387	Passes	413
320	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.52 · AD Ceuta FC 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 16 · AD Ceuta FC 13; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

Gorka Etayo Herrera, Spain→

5.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.92 for AD Ceuta FC.
The highest double chance value is 80.8% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,544 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win55.0%

Draw25.9%

AD Ceuta FC to win19.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time40.9%

Level at half-time42.2%

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or AD Ceuta FC ahead59.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1544 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 13
AD Ceuta FC: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 4
AD Ceuta FC: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.52

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score0.93

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–011.8%2–010.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.