Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 15

Granada CF–Cordoba

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'CordobaFuentes (assist: Cristian Carracedo)
74'Granada CFManu Lama

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Cordoba
18	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	8
1	Offsides	4
49%	Possession	51%
296	Passes	309
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.59 · Cordoba 1.21. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Granada CF 18 · Cordoba 11; on target 7 and 5.

Referee

Manuel Angel Perez Hernandez, Spain→

8.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “Cordoba to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Granada CF, 1.16 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,543 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win41.3%

Draw28.6%

Cordoba to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Granada CF lead at half-time40.0%

Level at half-time43.0%

Cordoba lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead60.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1543 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 12Actual: 11
Cordoba: at least 14Actual: 20

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 7
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.59

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.21

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–010.0%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.