Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 15

Leganes–Almeria

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'AlmeriaAdri Embarba (assist: A. Centelles)
50'AlmeriaD. Chirino (assist: Sergio Arribas)
90'AlmeriaArnau Puigmal (assist: Léo Baptistão)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Almeria
22	Shots	7
10	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
5	Corners	0
4	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
447	Passes	331
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.36 · Almeria 1.06. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Leganes 22 · Almeria 7; on target 10 and 4.
Leganes kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Eder Mallo Fernandez, Spain→

5.20

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “Almeria to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Leganes, 1.11 for Almeria.
The highest double chance value is 70.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,541 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win39.7%

Draw29.6%

Almeria to win30.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Leganes lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time46.2%

Almeria lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Almeria ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1541 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 12Actual: 8
Almeria: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Leganes: at least 4
Almeria: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.36

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Almeria score1.06

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.06 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–010.8%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.