Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 15

FC Andorra–Castellón

1–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'CastellónPablo Santiago (assist: A. Jakobsen)
54'CastellónAlberto Jiménez (assist: Pablo Santiago)
56'CastellónA. Jakobsen (assist: Pablo Santiago)
89'FC AndorraMinsu Kim (assist: G. Jastin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Castellón
10	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
534	Passes	392
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.38 · Castellón 1.37. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots FC Andorra 10 · Castellón 16; on target 4 and 6.
FC Andorra kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

6.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Castellón to win”. Second comes “FC Andorra to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for FC Andorra, 1.42 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,540 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win35.8%

Draw27.3%

Castellón to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Andorra lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time45.8%

Castellón lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.2%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1540 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 12Actual: 14
Castellón: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 2
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.38

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.37

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–29.2%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.