Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 14

Sporting Gijon–Eibar

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 November 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'EibarJosé Corpas (assist: Jon Bautista)
77'Sporting GijonJonathan Dubasin (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Eibar
13	Shots	6
6	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	1
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
618	Passes	393
540	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.33 · Eibar 1.23. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sporting Gijon 13 · Eibar 6; on target 6 and 3.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

7.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “Eibar to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Sporting Gijon, 1.06 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 69.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,533 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win37.2%

Draw30.9%

Eibar to win31.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time46.0%

Eibar lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.0%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1533 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 13
Eibar: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 10
Eibar: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.33

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eibar's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score1.23

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–011.7%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.