Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 14

AD Ceuta FC–Leganes

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 16 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'LeganesR. Pena
52'LeganesAmadou Diawara
90'AD Ceuta FCJuan Soriano (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AD Ceuta FC		Leganes
14	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
471	Passes	292
393	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AD Ceuta FC 1.03 · Leganes 0.95. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots AD Ceuta FC 14 · Leganes 12; on target 1 and 5.
AD Ceuta FC kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain→

6.14

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.2%: “AD Ceuta FC to win”. Second comes “Leganes to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.14 for AD Ceuta FC, 1.03 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 68.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,532 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AD Ceuta FC to win37.2%

Draw31.3%

Leganes to win31.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time46.4%

Leganes lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — AD Ceuta FC ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1532 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AD Ceuta FC: at least 13Actual: 15
Leganes: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

AD Ceuta FC: at least 4Actual: 6
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AD Ceuta FC score1.03

Attack: AD Ceuta FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score0.95

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AD Ceuta FC's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%1–012.2%0–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.