Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Burgos–Castellón

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 10 November 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío, Burgos

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Burgos		Castellón
9	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	3
39%	Possession	61%
301	Passes	470
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Burgos 1.34 · Castellón 1.18. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Burgos 9 · Castellón 11; on target 3 and 2.
Castellón kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain→

3.75

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Burgos to win”. Second comes “Castellón to win” at 34.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Burgos, 1.15 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 69.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,527 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Burgos to win35.7%

Draw30.3%

Castellón to win34.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Burgos win or draw65.9%

12 — any result other than a draw69.7%

X2 — draw or Castellón win64.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (30.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Burgos lead at half-time39.7%

Level at half-time42.2%

Castellón lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Burgos ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead60.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1527 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Burgos: at least 12Actual: 14
Castellón: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Burgos: at least 4Actual: 5
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals41.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 40.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Burgos score1.34

Attack: Burgos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.18

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–010.7%0–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1527 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 54 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.