Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Granada CF–Zaragoza

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'ZaragozaO. Naasei (own goal)
37'Granada CFJorge Pascual (assist: S. Faye)
63'Granada CFPedro Alemañ
90'Granada CFJosé Arnáiz (assist: L. Gagnidze)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Zaragoza
16	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
3	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
443	Passes	309
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.65 · Zaragoza 0.89. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Granada CF 16 · Zaragoza 11; on target 7 and 3.
Granada CF kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Eder Mallo Fernandez, Spain→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Granada CF, 0.92 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,525 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win48.2%

Draw28.9%

Zaragoza to win23.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Granada CF lead at half-time51.3%

Level at half-time40.9%

Zaragoza lead at half-time7.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level92.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead48.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1525 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 13Actual: 10
Zaragoza: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 6
Zaragoza: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.65

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score0.89

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–013.0%2–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.