Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Deportivo La Coruna–Cultural Leonesa

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri
24'Deportivo La CorunaMario Soriano (assist: Z. Eddahchouri)
75'Deportivo La CorunaZ. Eddahchouri (assist: Luismi Cruz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Cultural Leonesa
9	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	1
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
565	Passes	462
511	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.65 · Cultural Leonesa 0.93. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 9 · Cultural Leonesa 11; on target 3 and 5.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Andres Fuentes Molina, Spain→

5.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.3%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for Deportivo La Coruna, 0.89 for Cultural Leonesa.
The highest double chance value is 82.4% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,522 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win57.3%

Draw25.1%

Cultural Leonesa to win17.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time43.7%

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Cultural Leonesa ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1522 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 12
Cultural Leonesa: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 4Actual: 1
Cultural Leonesa: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.65

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score0.93

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–011.8%2–011.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.