Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Real Sociedad II–Leganes

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Real Sociedad IIJ. Ochieng (assist: Gorka Carrera)
40'LeganesAmadou Diawara (assist: Naim García)
85'LeganesG. Melero · red card
90'Real Sociedad IIDani Díaz (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Leganes
12	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
289	Passes	495
232	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.04 · Leganes 1.08. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Real Sociedad II 12 · Leganes 9; on target 2 and 3.
Leganes kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

5.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Real Sociedad II, 1.25 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 70.8% (X2 — draw or Leganes win).
These values were computed from 1,519 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win29.2%

Draw30.4%

Leganes to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time21.6%

Level at half-time46.1%

Leganes lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead78.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1519 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 15Actual: 18
Leganes: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 2
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.04

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score1.08

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–112.0%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.