Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 13

Mirandes–Sporting Gijon

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Sporting GijonJonathan Dubasin (penalty)
52'MirandesC. Fernandez (assist: A. Mari)
88'MirandesG. Petit (assist: M. Pascual)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Sporting Gijon
20	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
377	Passes	467
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.50 · Sporting Gijon 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Mirandes 20 · Sporting Gijon 7; on target 9 and 2.
Sporting Gijon kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Rafael Sanchez Lopez, Spain→

4.40

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.98 for Mirandes, 1.25 for Sporting Gijon.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (X2 — draw or Sporting Gijon win).
These values were computed from 1,518 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win27.8%

Draw30.5%

Sporting Gijon to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Mirandes lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time45.3%

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time27.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level72.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Sporting Gijon ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1518 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 11Actual: 11
Sporting Gijon: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 4
Sporting Gijon: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.50

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.11

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%0–112.6%0–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.