Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 10

Real Sociedad II–Huesca

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 November 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Real Sociedad IIP. Rodriguez (penalty)
90'Real Sociedad IILander Astiazarán (assist: Gorka Carrera)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Real Sociedad II		Huesca
13	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
444	Passes	342
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Real Sociedad II 1.34 · Huesca 0.99. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Real Sociedad II 13 · Huesca 10; on target 5 and 1.
Real Sociedad II kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

8.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Huesca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.99 for Real Sociedad II, 1.13 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 69.6% (X2 — draw or Huesca win).
These values were computed from 1,517 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Real Sociedad II to win30.4%

Draw31.7%

Huesca to win37.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Real Sociedad II lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

Huesca lead at half-time24.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Real Sociedad II ahead or level75.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1517 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Real Sociedad II: at least 13Actual: 19
Huesca: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Real Sociedad II: at least 4Actual: 3
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Real Sociedad II score1.34

Attack: Real Sociedad II score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.99

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Real Sociedad II's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.5%0–112.8%0–011.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.