Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Almeria–Eibar

3–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'AlmeriaSergio Arribas (penalty)
22'AlmeriaÁlex Muñoz (assist: Nico Melamed)
45'AlmeriaAdri Embarba (assist: S. Džodić)
70'EibarAnaitz Arbilla (assist: T. Villa)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Almeria		Eibar
11	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
42%	Possession	58%
393	Passes	525
318	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Almeria 1.65 · Eibar 1.01. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Almeria 11 · Eibar 12; on target 5 and 5.
Eibar kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Salvador Lax Franco, Spain→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.8%: “Almeria to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Almeria, 0.93 for Eibar.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Almeria win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,510 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Almeria to win54.8%

Draw25.8%

Eibar to win19.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Almeria lead at half-time28.7%

Level at half-time48.3%

Eibar lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Almeria ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Eibar ahead71.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1510 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Almeria: at least 12Actual: 15
Eibar: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Almeria: at least 5Actual: 3
Eibar: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Almeria score1.65

Attack: Almeria score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eibar score1.01

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Almeria's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–011.5%2–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.