Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Leganes–Burgos

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'LeganesÁlex Millán
8'BurgosFer Niño
45'BurgosMiguel Atienza (assist: David González)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Burgos
13	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
9	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
440	Passes	278
360	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.29 · Burgos 0.71. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Leganes 13 · Burgos 6; on target 3 and 2.
Leganes kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Jon Ander Gonzalez Esteban, Spain→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.7%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Leganes, 0.86 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Leganes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,508 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win43.7%

Draw31.4%

Burgos to win24.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

17	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Leganes lead at half-time35.3%

Level at half-time49.9%

Burgos lead at half-time14.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level85.2%

12 — not level at half-time50.1%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead64.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1508 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 12Actual: 17
Burgos: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Leganes: at least 4Actual: 9
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.29

Attack: Leganes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.71

Attack: Burgos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 38% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–014.7%0–012.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.