Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 12

Cultural Leonesa–Mirandes

3–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Reino de León, León

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Cultural LeonesaLuis Chacón (assist: Selu Diallo)
37'MirandesC. Fernandez (assist: A. Cardero)
62'Cultural LeonesaPibe (assist: I. Calero)
69'MirandesC. Fernandez (assist: T. Tamarit)
89'Cultural LeonesaL. Ribeiro (assist: I. Calero)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cultural Leonesa		Mirandes
18	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
477	Passes	332
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cultural Leonesa 1.38 · Mirandes 1.04. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Cultural Leonesa 18 · Mirandes 11; on target 7 and 6.
Cultural Leonesa kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos, Spain→

10.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.0%: “Cultural Leonesa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Cultural Leonesa, 0.95 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Cultural Leonesa win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,507 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cultural Leonesa to win50.0%

Draw27.7%

Mirandes to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Cultural Leonesa lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time44.7%

Mirandes lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cultural Leonesa ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.3%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1507 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cultural Leonesa: at least 13Actual: 11
Mirandes: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Cultural Leonesa: at least 5Actual: 6
Mirandes: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cultural Leonesa score1.38

Attack: Cultural Leonesa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score1.04

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cultural Leonesa's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–012.1%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.