Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Deportivo La Coruna–Valladolid

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'ValladolidJuanmi Latasa (penalty)
50'ValladolidMarcos Andre · red card
90'Deportivo La CorunaPeke (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Deportivo La Coruna		Valladolid
10	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	5
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
474	Passes	360
410	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Deportivo La Coruna 1.26 · Valladolid 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Deportivo La Coruna 10 · Valladolid 15; on target 4 and 5.
Deportivo La Coruna kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain→

6.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.8%: “Deportivo La Coruna to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Deportivo La Coruna, 1.07 for Valladolid.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Deportivo La Coruna win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,505 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Deportivo La Coruna to win47.8%

Draw27.3%

Valladolid to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time47.6%

Valladolid lead at half-time24.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Deportivo La Coruna ahead or level75.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Valladolid ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1505 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 11Actual: 18
Valladolid: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Deportivo La Coruna: at least 3Actual: 4
Valladolid: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.26

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Valladolid concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Valladolid score1.19

Attack: Valladolid score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–010.5%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.