Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Sporting Gijon–Zaragoza

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Sporting GijonJ. Otero (assist: César Gelabert)
45+8'Sporting GijonJonathan Dubasin · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sporting Gijon		Zaragoza
4	Shots	22
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	16
2	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
238	Passes	456
159	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sporting Gijon 1.66 · Zaragoza 1.01. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sporting Gijon 4 · Zaragoza 22; on target 3 and 3.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.2%: “Sporting Gijon to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for Sporting Gijon, 0.82 for Zaragoza.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Sporting Gijon win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,503 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sporting Gijon to win58.2%

Draw25.3%

Zaragoza to win16.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sporting Gijon lead at half-time46.3%

Level at half-time42.9%

Zaragoza lead at half-time10.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Sporting Gijon ahead or level89.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Zaragoza ahead53.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1503 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sporting Gijon: at least 13Actual: 12
Zaragoza: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

Sporting Gijon: at least 4Actual: 2
Zaragoza: at least 3Actual: 16

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sporting Gijon score1.66

Attack: Sporting Gijon score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zaragoza score1.01

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sporting Gijon's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%1–112.8%2–011.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.