Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Mirandes–Racing Santander

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'MirandesA. Cardero (assist: C. Fernandez)
44'Racing SantanderJ. Arevalo (assist: Iñigo Vicente)
59'Racing SantanderP. Canales
72'Racing SantanderAsier Villalibre (assist: P. Canales)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Racing Santander
14	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	12
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
403	Passes	417
316	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.45 · Racing Santander 1.33. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Mirandes 14 · Racing Santander 16; on target 3 and 7.

Referee

Andres Fuentes Molina, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.9%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Mirandes, 1.59 for Racing Santander.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (X2 — draw or Racing Santander win).
These values were computed from 1,501 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win25.2%

Draw26.9%

Racing Santander to win47.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

28	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Mirandes lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time45.5%

Racing Santander lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Racing Santander ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1501 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 13Actual: 28
Racing Santander: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 5
Racing Santander: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.45

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Racing Santander score1.33

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.4%0–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.