Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Granada CF–Cadiz

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes, Granada

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Granada CF		Cadiz
18	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
378	Passes	278
334	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Granada CF 1.51 · Cadiz 0.98. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Granada CF 18 · Cadiz 11; on target 1 and 1.
Granada CF kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Gorka Etayo Herrera, Spain→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.0%: “Granada CF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Granada CF, 0.98 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Granada CF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,499 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Granada CF to win43.0%

Draw30.1%

Cadiz to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Granada CF lead at half-time35.6%

Level at half-time44.5%

Cadiz lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Granada CF ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.5%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead64.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1499 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Granada CF: at least 13Actual: 7
Cadiz: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Granada CF: at least 4Actual: 8
Cadiz: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Granada CF score1.51

Attack: Granada CF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score0.98

Attack: Cadiz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Granada CF's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.5%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.