Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Albacete–Cordoba

1–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Carlos Belmonte, Albacete

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'CordobaRubén Alves (assist: D. de Almeida)
15'CordobaFuentes (assist: Cristian Carracedo)
74'CordobaFuentes (assist: C. Isaac)
90'AlbaceteJon Morcillo

Match statistics

Match statistics
Albacete		Cordoba
21	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	9
14	Shots inside the box	7
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
49%	Possession	51%
289	Passes	327
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Albacete 1.51 · Cordoba 1.33. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Albacete 21 · Cordoba 13; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “Albacete to win”. Second comes “Cordoba to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Albacete, 1.18 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,497 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Albacete to win43.5%

Draw27.6%

Cordoba to win28.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Albacete lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

Cordoba lead at half-time17.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Albacete ahead or level83.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1497 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Albacete: at least 11Actual: 8
Cordoba: at least 13Actual: 10

Corners

Albacete: at least 4Actual: 9
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Albacete score1.51

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.33

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Albacete concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.9%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.