Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 11

Huesca–Las Palmas

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'HuescaEnol Rodríguez (assist: Toni Abad)
79'Las PalmasM. Lukovic (assist: A. Garcia)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Las Palmas
13	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
30%	Possession	70%
255	Passes	614
177	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 0.74 · Las Palmas 1.02. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Huesca 13 · Las Palmas 12; on target 3 and 1.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

Luis Bestard Servera, Spain→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 33.5%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Huesca, 0.97 for Las Palmas.
The highest double chance value is 66.9% (X2 — draw or Las Palmas win).
These values were computed from 1,495 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win33.1%

Draw33.4%

Las Palmas to win33.5%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

19	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Huesca lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time51.0%

Las Palmas lead at half-time29.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level70.2%

12 — not level at half-time49.0%

X2 — level or Las Palmas ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1495 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 14Actual: 19
Las Palmas: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Huesca: at least 3Actual: 5
Las Palmas: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score0.74

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 50% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Las Palmas score1.02

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.7%0–014.1%0–113.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.