Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 9

Cadiz–Huesca

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: JP Financial Estadio, Cadiz

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

70'CadizI. Tabatadze (assist: Sergio Ortu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cadiz		Huesca
11	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
13	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
59%	Possession	41%
482	Passes	340
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cadiz 1.35 · Huesca 0.88. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Cadiz 11 · Huesca 10; on target 2 and 1.
Cadiz kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Cadiz to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Cadiz, 0.94 for Huesca.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (1X — Cadiz win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,481 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cadiz to win40.7%

Draw31.4%

Huesca to win27.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Cadiz lead at half-time47.9%

Level at half-time41.8%

Huesca lead at half-time10.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Cadiz ahead or level89.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Huesca ahead52.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1481 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cadiz: at least 12Actual: 12
Huesca: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Cadiz: at least 4Actual: 13
Huesca: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cadiz score1.35

Attack: Cadiz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Huesca score0.88

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–013.4%0–011.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.