Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 9

Eibar–Castellón

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 October 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Castellón
7	Shots	16
0	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	7
4	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
423	Passes	415
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.60 · Castellón 1.07. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Eibar 7 · Castellón 16; on target 0 and 5.

Referee

Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “Castellón to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Eibar, 1.20 for Castellón.
The highest double chance value is 71.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,479 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win40.2%

Draw28.5%

Castellón to win31.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Eibar lead at half-time40.7%

Level at half-time42.9%

Castellón lead at half-time16.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level83.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Castellón ahead59.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1479 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 12Actual: 7
Castellón: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Eibar: at least 4Actual: 1
Castellón: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.60

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Castellón's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Castellón score1.07

Attack: Castellón score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.07 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–09.6%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.