Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 9

Mirandes–Leganes

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 October 2025 at 14:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mirandes		Leganes
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	10
7	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
31%	Possession	69%
215	Passes	488
160	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mirandes 1.10 · Leganes 0.97. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Mirandes 13 · Leganes 17; on target 4 and 7.
Leganes kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain→

6.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “Leganes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.95 for Mirandes, 1.20 for Leganes.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (X2 — draw or Leganes win).
These values were computed from 1,475 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mirandes to win27.9%

Draw31.2%

Leganes to win40.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	7

6	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mirandes lead at half-time19.8%

Level at half-time50.2%

Leganes lead at half-time30.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Mirandes ahead or level70.0%

12 — not level at half-time49.8%

X2 — level or Leganes ahead80.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1475 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mirandes: at least 13Actual: 16
Leganes: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 3
Leganes: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mirandes score1.10

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leganes score0.97

Attack: Leganes score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%0–113.2%0–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.