Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Las Palmas–Cadiz

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

85'Las PalmasSergio Barcia (assist: J. Viera)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Las Palmas		Cadiz
14	Shots	8
1	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
539	Passes	342
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Las Palmas 1.26 · Cadiz 0.70. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Las Palmas 14 · Cadiz 8; on target 1 and 3.
Las Palmas kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Las Palmas to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Las Palmas, 0.91 for Cadiz.
The highest double chance value is 77.3% (1X — Las Palmas win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,472 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Las Palmas to win48.4%

Draw28.9%

Cadiz to win22.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Las Palmas win or draw77.3%

12 — any result other than a draw71.1%

X2 — draw or Cadiz win51.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Las Palmas lead at half-time27.0%

Level at half-time49.8%

Cadiz lead at half-time23.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Las Palmas ahead or level76.8%

12 — not level at half-time50.2%

X2 — level or Cadiz ahead73.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1472 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Las Palmas: at least 12Actual: 11
Cadiz: at least 15Actual: 18

Corners

Las Palmas: at least 4Actual: 6
Cadiz: at least 2Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals41.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,152 of 2,735 predictions were correct (42.1%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 40.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Las Palmas score1.26

Attack: Las Palmas score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Cadiz's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cadiz score0.70

Attack: Cadiz score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Las Palmas concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%1–013.2%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1472 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 49 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.