Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Racing Santander–Malaga

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45+1'MalagaJavi Montero · red card
61'Racing SantanderAsier Villalibre (assist: M. Sangalli)
74'Racing SantanderJ. Arevalo (assist: Jorge Salinas)
85'Racing SantanderA. Martin (assist: Iñigo Vicente)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		Malaga
16	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	5
14	Shots inside the box	5
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
11	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
493	Passes	376
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.83 · Malaga 0.90. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Racing Santander 16 · Malaga 10; on target 8 and 5.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.1%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Racing Santander, 1.07 for Malaga.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,470 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win51.1%

Draw26.0%

Malaga to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time47.4%

Malaga lead at half-time22.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level77.6%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Malaga ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1470 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 13Actual: 16
Malaga: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 11
Malaga: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.83

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Malaga's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Malaga score0.90

Attack: Malaga score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.