Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 8

Huesca–Burgos

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio El Alcoraz, Huesca

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'HuescaD. Luna (assist: I. Kortajarena)
73'BurgosDavid González (penalty)
90'HuescaS. Ntamack

Match statistics

Match statistics
Huesca		Burgos
9	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
5	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	1
2	Offsides	2
45%	Possession	55%
350	Passes	440
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Huesca 1.18 · Burgos 0.99. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Huesca 9 · Burgos 4; on target 4 and 2.
Burgos kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Alejandro Ojaos Valera, Spain→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Huesca to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for Huesca, 0.85 for Burgos.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (1X — Huesca win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,465 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Huesca to win39.3%

Draw33.2%

Burgos to win27.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Huesca lead at half-time21.5%

Level at half-time46.6%

Burgos lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Huesca ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Burgos ahead78.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1465 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Huesca: at least 11Actual: 14
Burgos: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Huesca: at least 4Actual: 1
Burgos: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Huesca score1.18

Attack: Huesca score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Burgos's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Burgos score0.99

Attack: Burgos score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Huesca's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.4%1–015.0%0–014.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.