Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 7

Racing Santander–FC Andorra

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'FC AndorraL. de León (penalty)
72'Racing SantanderM. Sangalli
75'FC AndorraÁlex Calvo (assist: Minsu Kim)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Racing Santander		FC Andorra
18	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	4
14	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
15	Corners	3
3	Offsides	9
58%	Possession	42%
467	Passes	351
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Racing Santander 1.79 · FC Andorra 1.11. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Racing Santander 18 · FC Andorra 14; on target 6 and 4.
Racing Santander kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Eder Mallo Fernandez, Spain→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Racing Santander to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Racing Santander, 1.19 for FC Andorra.
The highest double chance value is 76.8% (1X — Racing Santander win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,453 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Racing Santander to win52.2%

Draw24.6%

FC Andorra to win23.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Racing Santander lead at half-time31.4%

Level at half-time44.2%

FC Andorra lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Racing Santander ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or FC Andorra ahead68.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1453 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Racing Santander: at least 14Actual: 11
FC Andorra: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Racing Santander: at least 5Actual: 15
FC Andorra: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Racing Santander score1.79

Attack: Racing Santander score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Andorra score1.11

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Racing Santander's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.7%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.