Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 7

Eibar–Deportivo La Coruna

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

14'Deportivo La CorunaPeke (penalty)
90'EibarMalcom Adu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eibar		Deportivo La Coruna
23	Shots	9
10	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	9
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
66%	Possession	34%
591	Passes	313
519	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eibar 1.42 · Deportivo La Coruna 1.05. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Eibar 23 · Deportivo La Coruna 9; on target 10 and 3.
Eibar kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

German Cid Camacho, Spain→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “Eibar to win”. Second comes “Deportivo La Coruna to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Eibar, 1.17 for Deportivo La Coruna.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,453 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eibar to win37.9%

Draw29.3%

Deportivo La Coruna to win32.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eibar lead at half-time43.3%

Level at half-time44.1%

Deportivo La Coruna lead at half-time12.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Eibar ahead or level87.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Deportivo La Coruna ahead56.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1453 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eibar: at least 13Actual: 13
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Eibar: at least 5Actual: 6
Deportivo La Coruna: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eibar score1.42

Attack: Eibar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Deportivo La Coruna's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Deportivo La Coruna score1.05

Attack: Deportivo La Coruna score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Eibar concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.1%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.