Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 5

Zaragoza–Albacete

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 15 September 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zaragoza		Albacete
10	Shots	6
1	Shots on target	1
5	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
4	Offsides	1
61%	Possession	39%
483	Passes	310
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zaragoza 1.77 · Albacete 1.08. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Zaragoza 10 · Albacete 6; on target 1 and 1.
Zaragoza kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Daniel Palencia Caballero, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.4%: “Zaragoza to win”. Second comes “Albacete to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Zaragoza, 1.19 for Albacete.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,440 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zaragoza to win41.4%

Draw28.1%

Albacete to win30.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zaragoza lead at half-time23.2%

Level at half-time46.4%

Albacete lead at half-time30.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Zaragoza ahead or level69.6%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Albacete ahead76.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1440 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zaragoza: at least 12Actual: 7
Albacete: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Zaragoza: at least 5Actual: 3
Albacete: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 40.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zaragoza score1.77

Attack: Zaragoza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Albacete concede 28% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.77 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Albacete score1.08

Attack: Albacete score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zaragoza's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.6%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.