Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 5

FC Andorra–Cordoba

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'CordobaÁlex Petxarroman (own goal)
20'FC AndorraAingeru Olabarrieta
35'FC AndorraMinsu Kim (assist: Marc Domènech)
83'FC AndorraDani Villahermosa

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Andorra		Cordoba
14	Shots	19
8	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	7
5	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
290	Passes	413
230	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Andorra 1.43 · Cordoba 1.22. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots FC Andorra 14 · Cordoba 19; on target 8 and 5.
Cordoba kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Alejandro Morilla Turrion, Spain→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.9%: “FC Andorra to win”. Second comes “Cordoba to win” at 31.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for FC Andorra, 1.22 for Cordoba.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,435 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Andorra to win40.9%

Draw28.0%

Cordoba to win31.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	23

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

FC Andorra lead at half-time36.3%

Level at half-time47.6%

Cordoba lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Andorra ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time52.4%

X2 — level or Cordoba ahead63.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1435 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Andorra: at least 11Actual: 16
Cordoba: at least 14Actual: 23

Corners

FC Andorra: at least 4Actual: 3
Cordoba: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Andorra score1.43

Attack: FC Andorra score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cordoba's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cordoba score1.22

Attack: Cordoba score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Andorra's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.6%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.