2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

SSV Ulm 1846–1. FC Magdeburg

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Donaustadion, Ulm

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'SSV Ulm 1846S. Telalovic (assist: A. Keller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Ulm 1846		1. FC Magdeburg
7	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	3
0	Offsides	3
37%	Possession	63%
252	Passes	445
174	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Ulm 1846 1.32 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.40. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SSV Ulm 1846 7 · 1. FC Magdeburg 14; on target 4 and 3.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

N. Winter→

4.88

yellows per match

0.44

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “SSV Ulm 1846 to win” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.64 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Ulm 1846 to win28.7%

Draw26.2%

1. FC Magdeburg to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time44.8%

Level at half-time39.9%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Ulm 1846 ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead55.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 866 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 10Actual: 16
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 4Actual: 5
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.32

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.40

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.2%0–17.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.