Segunda División · Spain · Regular Season - 42

FC Cartagena–Mirandes

1–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 June 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'MirandesUrko Izeta (assist: J. Panichelli)
44'FC CartagenaÁlex Millán (assist: Nacho Martínez)
45+3'MirandesJ. Roca
70'MirandesÁlex Calvo (assist: Adrián Butzke)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Cartagena		Mirandes
9	Shots	23
3	Shots on target	9
6	Shots inside the box	15
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	1
41%	Possession	59%
386	Passes	557
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Cartagena 0.79 · Mirandes 1.58. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots FC Cartagena 9 · Mirandes 23; on target 3 and 9.
Mirandes kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

José Guzmán→

4.85

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 72.9%: “Mirandes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.73 for FC Cartagena, 2.27 for Mirandes.
The highest double chance value is 90.9% (X2 — draw or Mirandes win).
These values were computed from 1,378 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Cartagena to win9.1%

Draw18.0%

Mirandes to win72.9%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	8

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

FC Cartagena lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time47.4%

Mirandes lead at half-time27.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Cartagena ahead or level72.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Mirandes ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1378 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Cartagena: at least 12Actual: 13
Mirandes: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

FC Cartagena: at least 3Actual: 4
Mirandes: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Cartagena score0.79

Attack: FC Cartagena score below the league average (39% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mirandes concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mirandes score1.58

Attack: Mirandes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Cartagena concede 47% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–213.2%0–110.6%1–210.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.